Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2026 09:28:49 GMT
595
ABPZ20 KNHC 201145
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Odalys, located located over a thousand miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.
Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 400 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico have
continued to become better organized over the past several hours.
Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so as
the system moves generally northward off the coast of southwestern
Mexico. Interests along the southwestern and west-central coast of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For more
information, including gale warnings, see the High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical
Depression Fifteen-E, located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands, remain limited. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some development of this system by the middle to latter portion
of this week as it moves westward to west-southwestward, and a
tropical depression could form to the south or southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands once the environment becomes more favorable.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Odalys are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast Advisories on Tropical Storm Odalys are issued under WMO
header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch
...TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 the center of Odalys was located near 11.4, -124.5 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026 065 WTPZ31 KNHC 200847 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 124.5W ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 124.5 West. Odalys is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to persist over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Odalys is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Gibbs
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 738 WTPZ21 KNHC 200846 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 124.5W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 124.5W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 124.2W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 12.0N 125.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.3N 127.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.4N 128.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.0N 128.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N 128.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.3N 128.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 15.6N 126.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 16.7N 124.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 124.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200848 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that the convective organization of Odalys has improved over the past several hours. Deep convection continues to develop within a band wrapping around the western and southern semicircles, with a recent burst of convection expanding over or near the circulation center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is T2.5/35 kt. Given these data and the improved satellite presentation, advisories are being initiated on newly formed Tropical Storm Odalys, with an initial intensity of 35 kt. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/7 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or two as a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge remains positioned to the north. Thereafter, Odalys is forecast to slow considerably and turn sharply eastward by Tuesday, then east-northeastward through the latter part of the week in response to a developing weakness in the ridge as an upper-level trough deepens over the western United States. Although the track guidance remains in decent agreement through the first half of the week, increasing cross-track spread develops thereafter. This appears to be due, at least in part, to differences in how the models handle the evolution of the upper-level trough over the western United States and the potential influence of another developing tropical cyclone tracking west-northwestward offshore of southwestern Mexico. These factors lead to lower confidence in the track forecast during the latter portion of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast closely follows the HCCA and GDMI aids through around day 4, then reflects more of a blend of the two thereafter as the spread increases. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual strengthening during the next couple of days, with warm sea surface temperatures and plenty of deep moisture expected along the forecast track. However, modest north-northeasterly vertical wind shear may temper the rate of intensification during the next 24 h. Thereafter, the rate of strengthening could increase as the shear relaxes and Odalys remains in a favorable environment. The NHC forecast has the system becoming a hurricane by Monday, with some additional strengthening possible through Tuesday. Thereafter, progressively drier mid-level air, along with increasing vertical wind shear anticipated later in the forecast period, should induce a steady weakening trend. There is additional uncertainty in the intensity forecast due to the potential influence of another tropical cyclone evolving well to the east, which could affect its intensity depending on the eventual tracks and proximity of the two systems late in the week. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle to upper end of the guidance envelope through much of the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 11.4N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 12.0N 125.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 13.3N 127.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 14.4N 128.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 15.0N 128.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 15.2N 128.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 15.3N 128.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 15.6N 126.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 16.7N 124.8W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 200847
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 13(48)
15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19)
15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
15N 130W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 13(32) 1(33) X(33)
15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10)
15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2026 09:28:49 GMT