Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190506
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jun 18 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-
Tropical Cyclone Carlotta, located near the southwestern coast of
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta (EP4/EP042018)

...CARLOTTA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 18
 the center of Carlotta was located near 18.2, -103.6
 with movement NW at 3 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Public Advisory Number 18

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 190231
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

...CARLOTTA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW BUT STILL PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 103.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Carlotta was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 103.6 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph
(6 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight
into Tuesday morning. On the forecast track, the center will be
near or over the southwest coast of Mexico tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 25 mph (35 km/h) with
higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Carlotta is
expected to dissipate on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall
along the Guerrero, Michoacan and Colima coasts, with isolated
higher amounts of 10 inches possible.  These rains are likely to
produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
areas of higher terrain.  Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero
and Michoacan, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
amounts of 4 inches are forecast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Carlotta. For additional information on the remnant low,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Forecast Advisory Number 18

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 19 2018  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 190231
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042018
0300 UTC TUE JUN 19 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 103.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  20 KT WITH GUSTS TO  30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 103.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 103.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.4N 104.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 103.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CARLOTTA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW...
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 18

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 190235
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

A 2239Z SSMI/S microwave image indicated that a small mid-level
circulation remained, but Carlotta's low-level circulation was
either very small and indistinct, or it was located along the coast
of Mexico.  For this, the final advisory, it is assumed that the
low-level center is beneath the remnant mid-level circulation. The
upper-level circulation noted in hi-res GOES-16 visible imagery has
continued to move southwestward and decouple from the rest of the
circulation, and what little convection that does exist is rather
amorphous-looking and disorganized.  Based on the disheveled
appearance of the system, Carlotta is considered to be a remnant low
pressure system with 20-kt winds.

The initial motion estimate is 315/03 kt.  Steering currents are
weak and the shallow nature of the tiny cyclone should prevent
Carlotta's remnant circulation from moving inland over the high
mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico. As a result, the system
is forecast to drift northwestward and skirt the coast of Mexico
for the next 12-24 hours until dissipation or absorption into the
monsoon trough occurs some time on Tuesday.

Although there could be some intermittent short-lived bursts of
convection, proximity to land, modest northerly vertical wind
shear, and dry mid-level air should prevent the remnant low from
regenerating into a tropical cyclone.

Although Carlotta is no longer a tropical cyclone, an abundance of
tropical moisture flowing inland from the Pacific is expected to
produce heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, and Colima for the next couple of days.  Consult products
issued by the Mexican meteorological service for more information.

This is the last advisory on Carlotta issued by the National
Hurricane Center.  For additional information on the remnant low...
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 18.2N 103.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  19/1200Z 18.4N 104.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 19 2018                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 190231
PWSEP4
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042018               
0300 UTC TUE JUN 19 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS...25 MPH...35 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Graphics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Jun 2018 02:32:55 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Jun 2018 03:23:18 GMT