Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 25 Jul 2026 21:22:51 GMT
847
ABPZ20 KNHC 251718
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fausto, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical
Storm Genevieve, located well south of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
Well Southwest of Hawaii:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well
southwest of the Hawaiian Islands is associated with a broad area of
low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system while it moves generally westward at
about 10 mph toward the International Date Line, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in the western Pacific basin early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
&&
Products issued by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center can be
found at: www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Official tropical cyclone forecast information issued by the Japan
Meteorological Agency for the western Pacific basin can be found at:
www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.html
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
...FAUSTO CONTINUES WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC EARLY SUNDAY... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Jul 25 the center of Fausto was located near 19.3, -137.6 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 25 2026 226 WTPZ31 KNHC 252034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Fausto Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 25 2026 ...FAUSTO CONTINUES WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC EARLY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 137.6W ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Fausto. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fausto was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 137.6 West. Fausto is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fausto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. SURF: Surf generated by Fausto is expected to begin building across east-facing shores of the eastern end of Hawaii on Sunday, spreading westward Sunday night into Monday, and continue building through Tuesday as Fausto approaches and moves into the area. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 25 2026 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 252033 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026 2100 UTC SAT JUL 25 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 137.6W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......160NE 130SE 100SW 160NW. 4 M SEAS....270NE 240SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 137.6W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 137.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.6N 139.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 141.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.4N 144.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.9N 147.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.5N 149.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.1N 152.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 23.0N 157.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 24.0N 162.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 137.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 25 2026 171 WTPZ41 KNHC 252035 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 25 2026 The satellite presentation of Fausto has not changed much since earlier this morning. The ragged, 25 n mi wide eye of the hurricane is surrounded by a ring of deep convection that has intermittently been disrupted by some intrusions of dry air. The latest D-MINT, D-PRINT, and AiDT estimates from UW-CIMSS are all hovering around 85 kt, which is the basis for holding the initial intensity there for this advisory. A NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is currently underway to sample the environment around Fausto. Fausto is moving into a drier mid-level environment over marginal sea-surface temperatures, and southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to increase after 36 h while the system moves over the central Pacific basin. The intensity models unanimously agree that Fausto will weaken on its approach to the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and remains near the simple (IVCN) and corrected (HCCA) consensus aids. A faster rate of weakening is shown from 60-120 h once environmental conditions become increasingly hostile. As Fausto moves toward the Hawaiian Islands, the wind field is predicted to shrink and become asymmetric, with the strongest winds becoming displaced to the northern side of the circulation. A narrow subtropical ridge over the eastern and central Pacific Ocean continues to steer the hurricane toward the west at 12 kt. Fausto is expected to maintain this westward heading through early next week, bringing the system into the central Pacific basin tomorrow and toward Hawaii thereafter. A mid-level trough over the north-central Pacific may weaken the steering ridge enough early next week to induce a more west-northwestward motion later in the period. The track guidance trended northward once again and is coming into better agreement that Fausto should pass near but to the north of the Hawaiian Islands, making its closest approach during the middle of next week. The NHC forecast was nudged north of the previous prediction between 60-120 h, toward the latest consensus aids (TVCN, HCCA) and Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI). Regardless of the exact track, there is high confidence that Fausto will produce large swells, increased surf, and dangerous rip currents while it approaches and passes near the Hawaiian Islands. Based on the predicted sheared nature of the storm, the risk of sustained tropical-force-winds on land should be low as long as the forecast track stays north of the islands. Interests in Hawaii should continue to monitor the latest forecast updates. Key Messages: 1. Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands early next week. While the chances of the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall remaining offshore north of the islands are increasing, interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the progress of Fausto. 2. Confidence is high that swells generated by Fausto will reach the Hawaiian Islands well in advance of the cyclone, producing increasing surf and dangerous rip currents. Surf is expected to begin building across east-facing shores of the eastern end of the state on Sunday, spreading westward Sunday night into Monday, and continue building through Tuesday as Fausto approaches and moves into the area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 19.3N 137.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 19.6N 139.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 20.0N 141.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 20.4N 144.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 20.9N 147.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 21.5N 149.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 22.1N 152.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 23.0N 157.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 24.0N 162.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 25 2026 225
FOPZ11 KNHC 252034
PWSEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
2100 UTC SAT JUL 25 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 135W 34 89 X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
20N 140W 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 140W 50 29 65(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
20N 140W 64 6 60(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
20N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 52(53) 14(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68)
20N 145W 50 X X( X) 14(14) 14(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
20N 145W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 25 Jul 2026 21:22:51 GMT
...GENEVIEVE NEARLY A HURRICANE AND FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 3:00 PM CST Sat Jul 25 the center of Genevieve was located near 11.5, -105.7 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Jul 25 2026 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 252035 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Genevieve Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 300 PM CST Sat Jul 25 2026 ...GENEVIEVE NEARLY A HURRICANE AND FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 105.7W ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 105.7 West. Genevieve is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next few days, keeping Genevieve well offshore of the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast during the next couple of days. Genevieve is forecast to become a hurricane tonight and a major hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Genevieve are expected to begin affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico starting this weekend and will likely reach southern portions of the Baja California Peninsula on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 25 2026 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 252034 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026 2100 UTC SAT JUL 25 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 105.7W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....180NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 105.7W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 105.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.4N 107.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.5N 109.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.7N 111.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 55NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.9N 112.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 55NE 50SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.9N 114.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 55NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 55SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 19.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 55NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 105.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Jul 25 2026 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 252035 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 300 PM CST Sat Jul 25 2026 Genevieve continues to intensify this afternoon. The central dense overcast has persisted near the center and a plethora of curved bands continue to wrap around the western and southern semicircles of the storm. The Dvorak subjective intensity estimate from TAFB at 18 UTC was still T3.5/55 kt. Since then, the objective satellite estimates have continued to rise. The most recent Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) estimate is now at 65 kt, with D-PRINT estimates over the past couple of hours oscillating between 55-60 kt. Given the continued improvement in Genevieve's structure, the initial intensity is being raised to 60 kt for this advisory. Scatterometer data around 16 UTC also indicated that Genevieve's wind field has expanded, especially on its eastern side. The tropical storm continues to march on to the west-northwest, estimated at 300/13 kt. There is not much new to report with the forecast track evolution, as a deep-layer ridge located over the southwestern United States extending into the Pacific should maintain Genevieve's west-northwest to northwest motion through the entire forecast period. The track guidance this afternoon continues to be tightly clustered close to the previous forecast track, though the model mean is a little bit slower beyond 72 h. Thus, the latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one, but is a little slower, roughly splitting the difference between the reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) aids. Genevieve appears poised to undergo a period of rapid intensification (RI), if it is not already underway. The last microwave pass over the tropical cyclone was several hours ago, so it is unclear if the small inner core has fully closed off on the western side. Regardless, environmental parameters remain quite favorable, and SHIPS RI guidance (both the GFS and ECMWF versions) show between a 74 to 100 percent chance of a 45 kt increase in intensity over the next 36 h, with DTOPS RI guidance in the 90 percent range over the same time span. Thus, a 45 kt increase in intensity is forecast over the next 36 h, with Genevieve predicted to peak as a 115 kt category 4 hurricane in 48 h. This intensity forecast is in between the higher HCCA guidance and lower GDMI and HAFS-A/B solutions. After 48 h, the combination of inner-core fluctuations, a brief increase in northwesterly shear, and gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures (SST) could lead to gradual weakening. This weakening rate will likely increase when Genevieve crosses the 26 C SST isotherm between days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 11.5N 105.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 12.4N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 13.5N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 14.7N 111.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 15.9N 112.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 16.9N 114.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 19.0N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 20.5N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 25 2026 000
FOPZ12 KNHC 252035
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
2100 UTC SAT JUL 25 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 110W 34 X 35(35) 52(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
15N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 34(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
15N 110W 64 X X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 73(77) 2(79) 1(80)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 3(43) 1(44)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 2(25) X(25)
15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11)
15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 8(28) 1(29)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 53(54) 18(72)
20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 17(41)
20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16)
20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 25 Jul 2026 21:28:39 GMT