Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 050514
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Cristobal, located inland over northern Guatemala and 
southeastern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Depression Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)

...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MEXICO  AND CENTRAL AMERICA... ...CRISTOBAL EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER WATER BY FRIDAY NIGHT...
 As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 4
 the center of Cristobal was located near 17.8, -90.4
 with movement E at 3 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Cristobal Public Advisory Number 14

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 050235
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020
 
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MEXICO 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA...
...CRISTOBAL EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER WATER BY FRIDAY NIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 90.4W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Cristobal.  A tropical storm watch and a
storm surge watch will likely be required for a portion of the area
on Friday.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Cristobal was located inland near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 
90.4 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 
km/h).  A turn toward the northeast is expected overnight, and a 
subsequent northward motion should occur through Sunday.  On the 
forecast track, the center will move over extreme northwestern 
Guatemala and eastern Mexico on Friday.  The center is forecast to 
move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday night, over the 
central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf 
of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so, but 
slow strengthening is forecast to occur this weekend  when 
Cristobal moves back over water.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:
 
Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 5
to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.
 
Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and
Oaxaca...Additional 2 to 4 inches.
 
Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 10 to 15
inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to
Saturday, May 30th.
 
El Salvador...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
 
Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10
inches.
 
Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.
 
Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from
east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas
of flash flooding possible.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 14

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 050234
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032020
0300 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND A
STORM SURGE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  90.4W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  90.4W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  90.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.1N  90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.9N  90.2W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N  90.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 210SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.3N  90.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 180SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.3N  90.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.3N  90.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE  80SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 32.6N  92.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 37.3N  90.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N  90.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 050236
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020
 
Cristobal is not very well organized at the moment as the
center of the circulation remains inland over northern Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico.  Satellite images and radar data from
Sabancuy, Mexico, indicate that the associated showers and
thunderstorms lack banding features and the center is becoming
less distinct.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, but these
winds are likely occurring over water well to the north and east of
the center.
 
The depression is moving slowly to the east as it nears the
completion of a cyclonic loop around the Central American gyre that
it has been embedded within.  The models show the depression turning
northward soon on the west side of a subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic.  This should take Cristobal back over the southern
Gulf of Mexico waters by Friday night, and across the central and
northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.  A fairly progressive
ridge moving across the central U.S. could cause Cristobal to turn
to the left slightly as it moves across the Gulf coast late this
weekend and early next week. There remains a fair amount of spread
in the model solutions, with the GFS being the fastest and farthest
east and the ECMWF much slower and to the west.  The NHC track
forecast is between those scenarios and lies near the various
consensus aids, which typically have the lowest errors.
 
Cristobal is forecast to remain inland for another 12 to 24 hours, 
so little change in strength is anticipated during that time.  After 
the system moves back over water, gradual strengthening seems likely 
until Cristobal reaches the northern Gulf coast.  The 
intensification rate should be slow since Cristobal is a large 
system and will be moving into an environment of moderate wind shear 
and some dry air.  The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update 
from earlier and lies roughly near the middle of the guidance 
envelope.
 
Cristobal is expected to have a broad and asymmetric wind field as
it approaches the northern Gulf coast.  Given the expected
environmental conditions, the strongest winds, highest storm surge,
and heaviest rains could be well removed from the center of
circulation.  Therefore, it is important that users do not focus on
the exact forecast path of the center of the cyclone.  For more
information on the potential impacts, see the Key Messages below.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in
portions of Mexico and Central America.  Cristobal is expected to
produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the
week.  The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far
southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also
extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El
Salvador.  This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local
weather office for more information.
 
2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.  There is a risk of tropical storm
force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the
Florida Big Bend. These hazards will arrive well in advance of and
extend well east of Cristobal's center.  Storm surge and tropical
storm watches will likely be issued for a portion of the U.S. Gulf
Coast on Friday.
 
3. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast from
east Texas to Florida this weekend into early next week, with areas
of flash flooding possible.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 17.8N  90.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  05/1200Z 19.1N  90.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  06/0000Z 20.9N  90.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 36H  06/1200Z 22.5N  90.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  07/0000Z 24.3N  90.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  07/1200Z 26.3N  90.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  08/0000Z 28.3N  90.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  09/0000Z 32.6N  92.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  10/0000Z 37.3N  90.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Depression Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 050235
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032020               
0300 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   1(14)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)   1(15)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   6(16)   X(16)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  25(27)   3(30)   X(30)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   9(19)   1(20)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  26(28)   5(33)   1(34)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)   1(20)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  11(20)   1(21)
MORGAN CITY LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)   2(20)
LAFAYETTE LA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)   1(19)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)   1(16)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   1(13)
FORT POLK LA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   1(14)
LAKE CHARLES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   1(17)
CAMERON LA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
JASPER TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X  11(11)   3(14)   X(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PENSACOLA NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
KEESLER AB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   5(15)   X(15)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Depression Cristobal Graphics

Tropical Depression Cristobal 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jun 2020 02:36:34 GMT

Tropical Depression Cristobal 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jun 2020 03:24:55 GMT