Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2026 09:22:54 GMT
353
ABNT20 KNHC 211127
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
...FAY BEGINS TO WEAKEN... As of 9:00 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 the center of Fay was located near 33.8, -32.1 with movement SSE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 000 WTNT31 KNHC 210836 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...FAY BEGINS TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 32.1W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 32.1 West. Fay is moving very slowly toward the south-southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A faster motion to the southwest is anticipated during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay could degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 000 WTNT21 KNHC 210836 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 32.1W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 155 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 32.1W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 32.0W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 33.2N 32.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.3N 33.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.2N 34.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.4N 36.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 29.5N 43.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 32.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210836 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 Fay is now feeling the effects of strong vertical wind shear. Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation has become significantly vertical tilted, with the low-level center now well north-northwest of the mid-level center. The initial intensity is nudged down to 55 kt, which lies at the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Continued strong northerly vertical wind shear, along with intrusions of dry air should cause Fay to steadily weaken over the next few days. In fact, simulated satellite images from the GFS and ECMWF models show deep convection completely dissipating within the next 24 hours due to the harsh atmospheric conditions. Based on the latest guidance and satellite trends, the new forecast calls for a faster rate of weakening, with the transition to a remnant low now expected by 48 hours and dissipation in 4-5 days. This forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Fay appears to have turned southward at a slow pace, as expected, as the mid- to upper-level trough over the north Atlantic lifts out. A faster southwestward motion is forecast over the next few days as a low- to mid-level ridge becomes established to the northeast of the cyclone. This pattern should keep the system over the open Atlantic through dissipation later in the week. Little change was made to the previous track forecast, and this prediction is in best agreement with the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 33.8N 32.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 33.2N 32.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 32.3N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 31.2N 34.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 30.4N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0600Z 29.5N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 000
FONT11 KNHC 210836
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2026 09:22:54 GMT